Most voters think economy is poor, but split on whether Trump or Harris can fix it: AP-NORC poll

WASHINGTON (AP) – Voters remain deeply divided over whether they vote Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris dealing with key economic issues, though Harris scores slightly better on areas such as taxes for the middle class, according to a new poll.

The majority of registered voters in surveys of Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research explain the economy is poor. Nearly 7 in 10 say society is headed in the wrong direction.

But the research confirms that Trump has lost what he was good for the economywhich many voters say is the most important issue this election season above abortion, immigration, crime and foreign affairs.

“Do I trust Trump on the economy? No. I hope he will cut taxes for his friends like Elon Musk,” said Janice Tosto, a 59-year-old woman from Philadelphia, who is independent.

AP-NORC survey conducted in September They don’t find that Harris or Trump have a clear chance of dealing with the “economy and jobs.” But the poll asked specific questions about whether voters trust Trump or Harris to do a better job of dealing with housing costs, jobs and unemployment, middle-class taxes, grocery prices and gas and fees.

The poll found that 46% of voters favor Harris on middle-class taxes, compared to 35% for Trump. Harris also has a lower cost of living. Voters are about evenly split on whether Trump or Harris is better on the prices of everyday essentials like groceries and gas, and neither candidate has an advantage on jobs and unemployment.

Voters, however, are less likely to vote for Trump on the tariffs, which were defined in the survey as taxes on imports.

Pollster Amber Moody, 36, of Halifax, Virginia, said she trusts Trump — and Republicans in general — more on economic issues.

He said: “It seems to me that in my lifetime, every time a Democrat is in office, the economy crashes. “Prices go up, taxes go up and the national debt goes up. everything Donald Trump says and does, I believe he is the best choice.”

Voters see Harris more favorably than Trump

Voters’ opinions of Harris and Trump have remained steady over the past month.

Nearly half of voters have a favorable opinion of Harris, while 46% have an unfavorable view of him. Meanwhile, about 4 in 10 voters have a favorable view of Trump and about 6 in 10 have an unfavorable view. Trump’s positive values ​​have been remarkably consistent over the past few months, even after two assassination attempts and brutal impeachment.

Compared to last month, voter turnout is steady among Black and Hispanic voters, as well as men and women. Blacks’ opinion of Harris is overwhelmingly favorable — nearly three-quarters have a favorable opinion of the Democratic nominee — and their opinion of Trump is unfavorable, with nearly 2 in 10 having good idea. Hispanic voters also view Harris more favorably than Trump, though the gap is narrower: About 6 in 10 Hispanic voters have a favorable view of Harris and about 4 in 10 they have a positive view of Trump.

The polls also show a gender gap in the views of the candidates coming into the final days of the election.

About half of female voters have a favorable opinion of Harris, while only a third view Trump favorably. Among men, nearly half have a favorable view of Harris and the same share have a favorable view of Trump.

Voters are pessimistic about the economy and the country

In general, voters remain optimistic about the state of the economy and the general direction of the country.

Almost half of the voters describe the country’s economy as very poor or relatively poor. Republicans and independents are more likely to express those views than Democrats. There are signs of improvement, however, compared to an AP-NORC survey from October 2023, when nearly 7 in 10 US adults thought the US economy was in good shape bad. The number was even worse in October 2022, when nearly 8 in 10 Americans described the economy as poor.

About two-thirds of voters also say the country is headed in the wrong direction, while about a third say things are going in the right direction. Pessimism on this question has been consistent over the past three years, however, with nearly 8 in 10 Americans thinking the US is headed in the wrong direction last year. American adults were also disillusioned before the last presidential election, according to an AP-NORC poll from October 2020 when nearly 7 in 10 Americans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction wrong.

Jeffrey Trimble, a 62-year-old Democrat from Hermitage, Pennsylvania, said he was optimistic about the nation’s direction after “four years of hell” during Trump’s first term.

“We have some good people at the top of our government who have vision, who are kind, trying to get us back on track,” Trimble said.

Overall, the new survey sheds light on signs of trouble for both candidates as they work to assemble winning coalitions.

Young voters are more optimistic about economic health than older voters, and that’s not good news for Harris, whose party has long relied on strong support from voters of color and youth. .

Voters under the age of 45 are also less likely than voters over the age of 45 to trust Harris to cover housing costs or the cost of groceries and gas, though that doesn’t mean they are. vote Trump. Large proportions of new patients – about a quarter in both cases – do not trust either candidate or both equally.

Trump’s strong issue remains immigration

In other news, meanwhile, Trump’s consistent advantage continues to be immigration.

Forty-five percent of voters say he is the best candidate to handle immigration, compared with nearly 4 in 10 who favor Harris. About half of white voters trust Trump more on immigration, while about a third say the same about Harris. Hispanic voters are divided on who they prefer to handle immigration.

Harris’ strongest issue is abortion policy, with nearly half of voters saying he would be better on that issue compared to nearly 3 in 10 for Trump; climate change, where about half like his leadership and about 2 in 10 like Trump’s; and electoral integrity, with nearly half favoring Harris and nearly 3 in 10 favoring Trump.

Candidates are on the subject of crime. Foreign policy is also a key issue this fall, although neither candidate has a clear advantage on the Middle East situation. However, there are signs of weakness in Harris’s case within his own party. Nearly two-thirds of Democratic voters say Harris would be a better candidate to handle the Middle East. Among Republicans, nearly 8 in 10 say Trump would be better.

Diana Campbell Williams, a 72-year-old Democrat who lives in Auburn, Michigan, cites foreign affairs as her primary concern.

He says he is worried about Russia, Iran and North Korea. He doesn’t like Trump’s question of NATO and his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Williams said: “I have more confidence in Harris. I feel like he knows more about what’s going on, and I prefer the type of people he would be surrounded by after the election.”

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People are reporting from New York.

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Votes for 1,072 adults were made Oct. 11-14, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s AmeriSpeak Panel, designed to be representative of the US population. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.